A week’s a long time in politics

Good Monday morning. This is Stefan Boscia.
ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS: Most of Westminster will be off today enjoying the final pre-Christmas bank holiday and the dying embers of summer. But Playbook is sorry to report that the fun and carefree days of recess are painfully close to ending. We’re now just a week from parliament’s return and the political fault lines for the next few months are beginning to emerge. The new government’s in-tray is quickly filling up and a series of policy and political challenges await Labour ministers.
Looking under the hood: The prime minister’s immediate priority is to map out a long-term response to this month’s riots. Starmer is holed up in Downing Street putting the finishing touches to a major speech on Tuesday that will address some of the societal causes of the riots. He will lay the blame for the “rot” at the heart of Britain at the Tories’ door (obvs) while warning that “things will get worse before they get better.” Probably not a line you’ll see on party merch. 
A convenient timeline: The Times’ Aubrey Allegretti has been given more details of the speech, after a trail was published widely on Sunday by the nationals. Starmer will once again call for a decade of renewal and praise those who “cleaned up the streets — rebuilt walls, repaired the damage.” He will add: “Imagine the pride we will feel as a nation when after the hard work of clearing up the mess is done, we have a country that we have built together. Built to last.” 
**A message from Airbnb: At Airbnb, we have long led calls for proportionate regulations for short-term lets. We support plans to introduce new registration and planning rules in England as a significant step forward. Discover more.**
Looking for a second term: A person close to the PM told Allegretti “the scale of damage done by the Tories will take time to fix — and yes, that means thinking about two terms.” They continued: “But it isn’t complacency, it’s honesty. And yes, it’s candid for a politician. But it isn’t doom-mongering, it’s his pragmatism.” 
WARMING UP: In that spirit, we will soon see the government get some tough spending decisions out of the way as a part of Rachel Reeves’ efforts at fiscal consolidation. Chief among these politically fraught decisions is the scaling back of the winter fuel allowance. The backlash to Reeves’ decision to take away the payment from up to 10 million pensioners was immediate and now there is apparently disquiet in Starmer’s Cabinet.
Cabinet cut-through: The i splashes on an Arj Singh and Eleanor Langford scoop that there is disagreement within the PM’s top team about the move. One minister told the pair that “Rachel is going to have to show some flexibility on it,” after voter backlash to the announcement. Labour grandee and former Home Secretary Alan Johnson made similar sounds over the weekend, telling the BBC that Reeves needed “to look at tapering” off the changes. The Mail’s Martin Beckford reports that Reeves is facing a Labour backbench revolt over the winter fuel payment changes. 
Jumping on the bandwagon: James Cleverly is also getting some punches in, writing in the Express that Reeves doesn’t have a “democratic mandate” for the policy. In comments that splash the paper, the Tory leadership contender writes that Labour was elected on “false promises” and is “conning” the public.
Government response: Cabinet Office Minister Pat McFadden told LBC on Sunday that he understood why people were unhappy with the move, but that the government had an “overriding responsibility” to “ensure the public finances are on an even keel.” He also told Sky News: “It won’t be the last tough decision that we have to make in government.”
Is there a purpose to the prudence? Reeves is fond of quoting classic Gordon Brown lines and one of her favorites is “prudence with a purpose.” The chancellor has certainly shown her willingness for fiscal prudence, but some may question whether she has found the purpose for all this. Playbook reckons all this doom and gloom will be a much tougher sell (even if they’re pinning it all on the Tories) if she doesn’t find a clear way to communicate her positive economic vision. She’ll have the perfect chance to map this out in the Oct. 30 budget.
NOT GOING AWAY: Also causing Downing Street problems is the ongoing cronyism saga, which was given new life by the Sunday Times’ Gabriel Pogrund this weekend. The paper reported that Labour’s campaign donations chief Waheed Alli had been given a pass to Downing Street — something usually reserved for political aides and civil servants. The story has allowed the Tories to suggest the new government is in hoc to its donors. This last point has been aided by the appointment of Labour donors to senior civil servant positions (a trend first revealed by POLITICO’s Vincent Manancourt).
Quick catch-up: Alli, a multimillionaire media executive, has been an ally of Tony Blair for decades and was ennobled by the former PM in 1998. He was charged by Starmer with tapping up big donors for Labour’s election campaign. The life peer has donated £500,000 himself since 2020, including £16,200 for Starmer to buy trendy new clobber and eyeglasses for the election campaign.
Day Two story: The Mail goes big on the story today, splashing that Starmer is facing a “passes for glasses sleaze row” in a neat turn of phrase. The Telegraph’s Charles Hymas, meanwhile, reveals the Tories have written to Cabinet Secretary Simon Case to ask why Alli was given a pass at all. Shadow Paymaster General John Glen wrote that Downing Street security passes were not for people “requiring occasional access” and questioned why a Labour donor had “unfettered access to the heart of government.”
Nothing to see here: McFadden, ever the tireless broadcast warrior, was also rolled out on Sunday to say Alli’s pass was only temporary and has now expired. The Times reports today that Alli was a temporary adviser brought in by Starmer for the post-election transition period into government. Luckily for McFadden, he will get a day off from these sorts of questions as neither party has put anyone up for broadcast rounds this morning.
ESCALATING SITUATION: Plenty of eyes in Whitehall will be looking toward the Middle East today amid fears of escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel carried out pre-emptive strikes on Hezbollah positions in Southern Lebanon on Sunday in anticipation of retaliation for the assassination of senior commander Fuad Shukr last month. Hezbollah fired more than 300 rockets and drones into Israel, but many were intercepted. The BBC has a write-up here.
Lammy calls for calm: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes were “not the end of the story,” while Hezbollah said its attacks were just the “first phase” of retaliation. These comments sparked fear of greater escalation in the region, with David Lammy tweeting that “must be avoided at all costs.” The Mirror’s splash warned the two sides were on the “brink of war.”
Where’s the off-ramp? However, some argue the latest strikes have given both sides enough room to deescalate the growing skirmish and find an off-ramp. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said last night that “at this current stage, the country can take a breath and relax.” Chatham House’s Yossi Mekelberg told Playbook that “logic dictates that both sides would like to deescalate” and avoid an all-out war.
Speaking of Hezbollah: My POLITICO colleague Matthew Karnitschnig reports on European and U.S. efforts to cut the group off from its main source of funding — Iranian oil revenues.
TALKS CONTINUE: The strikes came as talks over a Hamas-Israel cease-fire continue in Cairo this week. There is still no breakthrough in the U.S.-backed peace talks, with disagreements over the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Israel is concerned about several of the Palestinian detainees Hamas is demanding be released in exchange for the hostages. There are also disagreements about the future presence of Israeli troops in Gaza. Reuters has more details.
Intertwined web: Mekelberg said the growing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah may also be affected by these peace talks in Cairo. “If Hamas agrees on a cease-fire, I don’t think Hezbollah or Tehran will try to undermine it — definitely not overtly,” he told Playbook. “If they’re seen as the one who derails a deal that saves lives of Palestinians, that doesn’t look good for Iran and Hezbollah.”
PLAYING OFFENSE: The British government still has a big decision to make over the sale of weapons to Israel, with the Guardian reporting that the attorney general has intervened. Kiran Stacey reports that Richard Hermer has told the Foreign Office he will not approve a decision to ban the sale of some weapons to Israel and not others — as countries like the U.S. have. Lammy has ordered a review into arms sales to Israel, with the foreign sec apparently raising the idea of blocking the sale of “offensive” weapons and not “defensive” weapons. 
Also closer to home: My POLITICO colleague Andrew McDonald writes about the splits in the Scottish National Party over Gaza. He reports the internal backlash caused by Angus Robertson, Scotland’s external affairs minister, meeting an Israeli minister has revealed deep fissures within the party on foreign policy. Read more here.
PARLIAMENT: Feet up. 
FIRST CONFERENCE CONTROVERSY: Senior figures in Labour are pushing for a controversial rule change at next month’s party conference, which would give MPs rather than members the power to elect leaders, the Times’ Aubrey Allegretti reports. The proposal is being called a “Liz Truss lock,” although it could just as easily be called a “Jeremy Corbyn lock.”
ALTERNATE HISTORY: A Tory-Reform UK electoral pact was considered by Rishi Sunak and his most senior advisers for seven months, according to Ben Riley-Smith. The Telegraph pol ed writes in the new edition of his book on the Conservative Party, now titled “Blue Murder,” that Sunak discussed a proposal by Andrea Leadsom to form a “joint ticket” of Tory and Reform MPs in parts of the country. Some of Sunak’s closest allies were in favor of some sort of pact, with one telling Riley-Smith that the attitude was: “If it helps win, f**k it. We’ll have a go.”
MONEY TALKS: Conservative leadership hopeful Priti Patel has described Rachel Reeves as “money-grabbing,” telling the Daily Express the chancellor “has shown she will stop at nothing to pay off her mates.” The former home secretary wrote to Reeves raising concerns about stamp duty rises, saying she had “chosen to back the demands of trade unions over sound fiscal policy and the needs of the British people.”
PRISON DECISION: Shorter jail sentences for women could be scrapped as part of a wider review of sentencing by Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood, the i’s Arj Singh reports. This could see thousands of women avoid jail altogether.
HAND ‘EM OVER: A knife amnesty allowing people to hand in zombie knives and machetes at local police stations starts today. According to the Home Office, those who are found with such weapons after Sept. 24 could face jail time.
BEAUTY IS IN THE EYE OF THE BUILDER: A new report from Policy Exchange backed by former Labour MP Jon Cruddas suggests the government should put beauty at the heart of planning rules. Cruddas says it would “help Labour use its socialist heritage to solve the housing crisis.” As a reminder, Housing Secretary Angela Rayner said a previous requirement for new homes to be “beautiful” was “preventing and blocking development.”
SCOTLAND SPAT: MSPs have been asked to provide notes of their Holyrood speeches in advance to aid the official record, the Scottish Sun revealed. One MSP told the Scottish Sun “we should be making speeches, not submitting essays.” Another said debates are “often a sham” and “completely scripted.” A Scottish parliament spokesperson said providing notes is “entirely voluntary” and helps with “clarifying details.”
BRIT KILLED IN UKRAINE: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sent his “condolences to family and friends” of Ryan Evans, a 40-year-old British safety adviser for Reuters. He was killed in a missile strike on a hotel in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine, the news outlet reports. Ukrainian authorities said Russia was behind the strike, which seriously injured two other Reuters journalists.
TELEGRAM ARREST: Pavel Durov, the CEO of messaging app Telegram, was arrested in Paris on Saturday. The BBC reports the app has been accused of failure to cooperate with law enforcement over drug trafficking, child sexual content and fraud. Telegram said in a statement it has “nothing to hide.”
GET WELL SOON: Anthony Fauci, the former chief medical adviser to the U.S. president, was hospitalized with West Nile virus and is now recovering at his home. Fauci, who is expected to make a full recovery, per the BBC, said he likely caught the virus from a mosquito bite in his garden.
**A message from Airbnb: We support plans to introduce a registration and new planning rules for short-term lets in England. Families who host on Airbnb will benefit from clear rules that support their activity, while local authorities should get access to the information they need to maintain healthy communities, and assess and manage any impact on housing. Find out more.**
No government or opposition broadcast rounds. Having brunch. 
Hosting LBC from 10 a.m: Conservative MP Suella Braverman. 
Times Radio Breakfast: Economist David Blanchflower (7 a.m.) … IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani (8 a.m.) … Sussex PCC and retail crime lead at the Association of Police and Crime Commissioners Katy Bourne (8.45 a.m.).
Sky News Breakfast: Chatham House’s Yossi Mekelberg (7.30 a.m.).
POLITICO UK:  Gaza crisis tears Scotland’s independence warriors apart.
Daily Express: It’s a betrayal! Labour has no mandate to axe winter fuel payments. 
Daily Mail: Starmer in ‘passes for glasses’ sleaze row.
Daily Mirror: Brink of war. 
Daily Star: Sun’s out tum’s out!
Financial Times: Private equity’s appetite for China fades as Xi tightens grip on business.
i: Cabinet split as Labour MPs fear voter backlash over winter fuel allowance cut.
The Daily Telegraph: PM under pressure over No. 10 pass for donor.
The Guardian: Airstrikes on Hezbollah ‘not the end of the story’, says Netanyahu.
The Independent: Israel tells Hezbollah ‘this is not the end.’
The Times: Decade to rebuild Britain after Tories, says Starmer. 
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Sunny spells with some clouds. It wouldn’t be a real bank holiday if the skies were clear, would it? High 23C, low 14C.
BLOSSOMING BROMANCE? Congrats to Lib Dem MP Tim Farron and GB News’ Chris Hope for completing the very wet and windy Grasmere Fell Race. 
GET THE TISSUES READY: ICYMI, the Times’ Aubrey Allegretti got hold of No. 10’s plans to deal with the day Larry the Cat mutters his last meow.
Since it’s recess: Check out this long read on Larry the Cat and those that moused before him by Playbook’s own Bethany Dawson, written this time last year. Not that August is quiet, or anything …
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: No one. They’re having a nice bank holiday. We hope you do, too.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TUESDAY MORNING: Stefan Boscia.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO:  Former Levelling-Up Secretary Michael Gove … former Rochford and Southend East MP James Duddridge … Former Waveney MP Peter Aldous … Labour peer David Watts … GB News’ Tom Harwood … BBC documentary maker Michael Cockerell.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.
SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | EU Election Playbook | Berlin Playbook | Global Playbook | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters